SINGAPORE – As investors confront the upcoming United States presidential election, we believe that, in terms of market impact, two uncertainties dwarf the obvious question of who will win the White House.

The first question is whether there will be a smooth transition of power. In past elections, a predictable process was mostly taken for granted, but we should not do so this time given multiple red flags that President Donald Trump is prepared to contest the election. These include his refusals to commit to accepting the results, his claims of widespread voter fraud and, more tellingly, Mr Trump’s prediction that the outcome will be decided by the Supreme Court.