(AsiaGameHub) –   While Kalshi still doesn’t classify itself as a sports betting company, the discussion around this issue persists. New March data from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG) reveals that the prediction market platform is now competing with some of the biggest names in U.S. online betting—adding further fuel to the ongoing debate.

According to the boutique research firm, Kalshi ranked as the fourth-largest U.S. sportsbook on an adjusted handle-per-adult basis last month, with only DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics ahead of it.

The prediction market outperformed well-established sportsbooks like BetMGM, Bet365, and Caesars Sportsbook, once again highlighting the peak period for prediction markets during the NCAA Tournament, where activity on yes/no contracts typically surges.

Context Is Important

EKG’s data also showed that the platform moved up five positions year over year. However, these numbers come with crucial context: EKG does not use traditional sports betting handle metrics, instead applying a model called handle-analog that tracks changes in open interest, execution pricing, and activity patterns across millions of markets.

This makes the comparison distinct from standard sportsbook reporting.

There’s also the factor of partner-driven activity, as EKG notes Kalshi’s figures include trading volume flowing through partners like Robinhood Markets and Coinbase Global.

In other words, some users access event contracts via those platforms rather than directly on Kalshi itself.

“Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Polymarket U.S. adjusted handle-per-adult figures reflect both organic activity and partner-driven volume and are therefore not strictly comparable to standalone OSB operators,” EKG stated.

Prediction Markets Attract Specific Users

Nonetheless, prediction markets are clearly gaining traction in the U.S. sports ecosystem. Much of the trading volume on these platforms is tied to sports outcomes, even if companies avoid framing it that way.

Industry research also suggests these platforms are attracting a specific type of user: some sharp bettors who were limited or restricted by traditional sportsbooks have shifted to prediction markets.

At the same time, recreational users still tend to prefer mainstream sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel when both options are available.

EKG estimates that U.S. sports prediction markets reached about $2 billion in monthly handle in March 2026, representing roughly 11% of combined U.S. sportsbook and prediction market activity.
For the full year, the firm projects this figure could rise to $34 billion.