(AsiaGameHub) –   In December 2024, Singapore officially prohibited the prediction market platform Polymarket, deeming it an unregulated gambling site.

Individuals attempting to access Polymarket were notified that their actions contravened the Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRA). Consequences involve fines up to SG$10,000, a six-month prison sentence, or a combination of both.

Residents of Singapore can legally wager through Singapore Pools, a state-approved portal offering lotteries, sports betting, and horse racing. Nevertheless, the nation has observed a spike in bets placed on Polymarket. These wagers cover various topics, including sports events such as the Singapore Grand Prix or the 2025 general election, as well as everyday domestic occurrences like the weather.

This month, gamblers have placed daily bets on Singapore’s temperature totaling up to SG$127,160 (US$100,000). For instance, on April 17, participants staked nearly SG$158,725 that the temperature would hit 33°C.

Suspicious trades spark ethical concerns

Platforms such as Polymarket have faced scrutiny due to bets on US military action in the Middle East that appeared suspiciously timed. One trader, known as “Magamyman,” made US$550,000 by betting that Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be removed from power, just hours before his assassination. Additionally, a wager that the US would bomb Iran was placed on February 28, shortly before the attack commenced.

These incidents have raised alarms regarding unethical behavior, including insider trading. Both Polymarket and Kalshi have connections to the Trump administration, with the US president’s son, Donald Trump Jr., serving as an advisor to both entities.

This month, Hong Kong delayed the launch of legal sports betting due to a surge in prediction market activity. In a statement released on April 14, the Hong Kong government reported that trading volume reached US$64 billion in 2025, a 200% increase from the prior year. “Given these latest developments, as a responsible government, it is necessary to conduct a more in-depth study into the operations of these emerging models and platforms,” officials stated.

Similarly, Singaporean authorities have reminded the public that individuals who “deliberately circumvent the government’s blocking measures do so at their own risk”.